On April 8, China Ship and China Shipbuilding Resumption resumed daily limit. The next day, the two stocks continued to rise and stop, and they were unique in the shipbuilding sector. However, the market still has a lot of doubts about the two companies' daily limit. Judging from past performance, Chinese ships and CSSC are not doing their best. The reasons behind it are both the cause of the big environment and the problem of horizontal competition between the two companies caused by business conflicts.
After the reorganization, the existing pattern will be broken. The two companies have continued to slump for many years of performance, and after this reorganization, they have formed a rebound space.
The long-awaited progress of the Chinese Shenzhou ship has taken another step forward, as part of the reorganization plan disclosed by the two listed companies of the China National Shipbuilding Corporation, known as the "China South Ship".
On April 5, the announcement of the Chinese ship showed that it had adjusted the target assets, the counterparty, the issue price and the fund raising.
The announcement showed that before the adjustment of the underlying assets, it was 36.27% of Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding and 12.09% of Zhongchuan Chengxi. After adjustment, in addition to the original assets, it also added 100% equity of Huangpu Wenchong and 100% equity of GSI. And the equity of Jiangnan Shipbuilding.
Behind this adjustment is the transformation of CSSC's positioning of its two major listed platforms. Before the adjustment, CSSC and Chinese ships were classified according to military and civilian use; after adjustment, they were differentiated according to ship and power, and CSSC became the power assembly platform, and Chinese ships became the ship assembly platform.
Affected by this restructuring news, China Southern Power, China Haiphong, China Emergency, China Shipbuilding Defense, and China Shipbuilding, the six major business platforms of “North and South Ships”, rose by 8% to 50% respectively, with a total market value of 45 billion. "South Ship" final assembly, power platform in the ship defense, Chinese ships on the 9th of the day within the daily limit.
From the perspective of the counterparty, in the original trading plan, the counterparty was Huarong Ruitong, Xinhua Insurance, Structural Adjustment Fund, CPIC Property Insurance, China Life Insurance, PICC Property Insurance, ICBC Investment, Dongfu Tianheng. After the adjustment, CSSC, Zhongyuan Assets, CSSC and specific investors were added.
The issue price also changed from the 21.98 yuan/share before the adjustment to the adjusted 13.24 yuan/share. In addition, a new fund-raising plan has been added.
"North-South ship merger" event stimulation layer stack
Previously, Tiger Finance came in "China God Ship"? "The "China Shenzhou" has both internal asset integration, and its external industry platform may have a merger of three general platforms (equivalent to three Chinese car), which will trigger both the primary market and the secondary market. shock.
Including most analysts believe that the capital speculation and traffic effects caused by the "North-South ship merger" is comparable to the superposition of China's North-South car merger and AVIC's asset securitization process.
Judging from past experience, the "North-South ship merger" will generate more event-driven factors, and the capital operation cycle is dense. The "North-South ship concept" has more plenty of hype time and speculation space.
The capital operation of “North Ship” will take a step forward in 2017. At the end of 2017, CLP Guangtong, a subsidiary of “North Ship”, changed its course and injected it into the North Coast listed platform of China Haiphong. Further, China Haiphong intends to set up its own CLP smart card and CLP financial assets, acquire 100% equity of Great Wall Electronics and 29.94% equity of Sai Ke, and realize asset securitization of electronic information business. The follow-up of China Shipbuilding's defense was independent of the broader market and the sector, and the stock reached a new high in September 2017.
Coincidentally, at the end of last year, China National Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. announced that it will set a 53.01% stake in “Haogong Assets” and a 67% stake in Qingdao Wuchuan, which has a large operational risk, while offshore assets are subject to speculative orders. More, the default is high, and the shipowner's own business risk is huge, which is easy to brew the capital chain risk, thus further affecting the sustainable management of offshore assets.
Similarly, China’s heavy industry assets have brought about a turnaround, and its share price has nearly doubled since December last year – but it is still far from 2015’s 20.14 yuan.
After the completion of the reorganization of the "South Ship" power and assembly platform, there are still many in vitro assets, and there is a possibility of further injection in the future. According to the research of Guojin Securities, these assets include System Engineering Research Institute (ship system integration), 708 (military auxiliary ship, civil ship design), Shanghai Ship Research Institute (civil ship design), Guangzhou Ship and Ocean Engineering Research Institute (ship and ocean) The overall development of the project) and so on. In the future, with the continuous injection of assets outside the system, the “market making” of “South Ship” may further evolve.
Secondly, due to the huge volume of “North-South ship mergers” and the need for capital, the merger of North and South ships is bound to bring more capital participation. Under the premise of binding many stakeholders in the short-term, the security performance of the restructuring price has been guaranteed to a certain extent.
The integration of "South Ship" assets has introduced a large number of financial capital to help out, and it has a big difference from the establishment of the capital operation center of the China Aviation Industry Asset Securitization. For example, Chinese ships introduce Xinhua Insurance, Pacific Insurance, PICC, Life Insurance, ICBC Investment (expected to be a PE-type institution, with the participation of retail investors) and China Chengtong's structural adjustment fund managed by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, and Henan Province AMC Zhongyuan Asset Management Co., Ltd., etc. . The advantage of insurance capital is to become a long-term strategic investor of military assets. The non-performing assets and state-owned assets restructuring fund can help the military assets to carry out asset replacement and translation, and achieve asset quality improvement on the listed platform.
The performance has been sluggish for many years and has formed a rebound condition.
In fact, the performance of the two companies under the South China Shipping Group has been flat, especially for Chinese ships, which have suffered losses for two consecutive years and have been warned by the Shanghai Stock Exchange to implement the risk of delisting.
According to public information, the predecessor of the Chinese ship was Hudong Heavy Machinery. In 2007, the company issued 400 million non-public shares to CSSC, Baosteel Group, Shanghai Electric, and CSSC Finance, realizing the asset injection of Waigaoqiao and Chengxi ships, and changed its name to Chinese ships.
The main business of China's ships is mainly ship repair, power equipment, mechanical and electrical equipment and marine engineering. Among them, ship repairs account for the largest proportion. According to the proportion of annual reports in 2018, the operating income of ship repairs is 13.21 billion yuan. The proportion is 72.6%.
According to the research report of Guolian Securities in 2017, the parent company of China Shipbuilding in 2016, China State Shipbuilding Corporation, is the largest civil shipbuilding enterprise in the world. However, as one of the main forces of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, Chinese ships have not been able to perform well in performance.
In 2016, China’s ship lost 2.6 billion, the first loss in the past 10 years. In 2017, Chinese ships lost money again. The amount of the loss is still as high as 2.3 billion. That is to say, in the past two years, the loss of Chinese ships has reached 5 billion. This is almost the sum of the net profit attributable to the parent company for the Chinese ship in 2010-2015, 6 years.
From the perspective of its historical performance, the overall performance of Chinese ships has started to decline since 2012. In fact, in the 2011 China Ship Research Report, there have been signs of a decline in performance.
In October 2011, BOC International released a research report titled “Declining Orders, Worrying Results”, bluntly saying that new orders for Chinese ships have fallen, and that shipbuilding demand will be weak in the future.
In May 2012, the data in another research report of BOC International was more telling. “According to Clarkson’s data, the February 2012 new ship price index and second-hand ship price index were 136 and 166 respectively, which have both fallen into The lowest point since May 2006 has also fallen by 4% and 16% compared to the same period last year."
The net profit attributable to the parent company of China Ships fell by nearly 98.8% in 2012. The net profit attributable to the parent company of the same group of CSSC was also reduced from 518 million to 0.1 billion in 2012.
According to public information, CSSC is a military asset under the China National Shipbuilding Industry Corporation. It has successively completed the military and civilian ship product system through the acquisition of Zhongchuan Longxue and Huangpu Wenchong. The company's main business is shipbuilding products, offshore products, ship repair, steel structure engineering and mechanical and electrical products.
Comparing the main business of the Chinese ship mentioned above, the two listed companies under the Nanchuan Group are not clearly differentiated. Thus, to a certain extent, it caused the horizontal competition of the two companies.
Since 2011, the shrinking of the shipping business has caused the shipbuilding industry to fall both in terms of orders and prices. According to the research report of BOC International, “the total global shipbuilding orders in January and February 2012 were 2,550,000 DWT and 3,122,340 DWT, respectively, down 69.39% and 55.26% respectively over the same period of last year. In the same period, China Shipbuilding orders were 776,300 DWT and 1,288,800 DWT respectively. , down 86.53% and 23% year-on-year."
From the gross profit margins of the two companies, in 2012, the gross profit margin of Chinese ships fell from 20.73% to 13%, and continued to decline in the following years, once fell to 8.49%. In the same period, the gross profit margin of CSSC also fell from 11.17% to 7.06%.
Although in the following years, there have been reports that the shipbuilding industry is about to pick up, since 2014, the total operating cost of China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Defense has never been below 100%.
The reasons behind it are both the cause of the big environment and the problem of horizontal competition between the two companies caused by business conflicts.
Nowadays, the leaders of the North Ships talked, the CSRC recommended the securitization of military assets, coupled with the rise of ship prices at a purely operational perspective, steel prices fell, and the 70th anniversary of the Navy’s stimulus orders led to a reversal of the military ship industry cycle, due to the “North-South ship merger” in the policy cycle. In the industry cycle and the capital operation cycle, a very good resonance has been achieved. In addition, military assets have been overdrawn in 2015, but now they have been fully retreated, and they are expected to form a virtuous circle between profit margin and stock market value.
